Abortion Bet
My $800 against Michael Crone's $100
Michael Crone thinks that there is a moderate chance that surgical abortion will soon be illegal throughout the 50 United States. Since I think this legal change is extremely unlikely, we were able to hammer out the bet below. With perfect information and zero transaction costs, we’d be using 6:1 odds. But to simplify the bet, he’s prepaying me, and if either of us dies, I (or my heirs) keep the money. In compensation, I’ve boosted the odds to 8:1.
Here, quoting Crone, are the exact terms.
"I, Michael Crone, send you $100 right away. You, Bryan Caplan, pay me the inflation-adjusted equivalent of $900 (my $100 plus your $800) in 2024 dollars if on June 1, 2034, surgical abortion is illegal in all states of the US except in cases of risk to the life of the mother."
Note the phrase surgical abortion. This phrase is meant to have the bet resolve in my favor even if other types of human embryo killing procedures (such as might be used for IVF) or if known abortifacient pills or pills (such as some currently used as birth control) whose abortifacient nature is in dispute are still in use. I don't think it's as likely that early embryo killing will become illegal and that leaves enough of a gray area with pills that I think the surgical abortion phrasing is best.
I also want to state for the record that I estimate this as predictively equivalent to a 6:1 bet on the abortion ban question due to mortality/etc. risks. I say this only because I am offering this bet to make a point about the abortion ban likelihood.
Here is Michael on the bet. Highlight:
Contrary to what you may have heard, the referenda have not been winning by margins that preclude the reasonable possibility of a flip in the majority. Abortion won 57% to 43% and 56% to 44% in Ohio and Michigan respectively – both purple states – but a net change of more than 6 or 7% is well within the changes of opinion that happen over the course of less than a decade. Current polling numbers on pro-life vs. pro-choice are similar to mid-1990’s levels, from which pro-life polling numbers rebounded quickly.
My Complete Bet Wiki has now been updated.
I think that this is not totally unrealistic. Pro-lifers may not be the majority, yet, but they are not a small fringe minority in the US. Plus, American pro-lifers seemed to be laser-focused, before, on reversing Roe-vs-Wade. I think, now that Roe-vs-Wade is overturned, they can shift their focus on changing minds and changing laws. I think the Democrats are gonna try to "codify Roe-vs-Wade", legalizing abortion, nationwide.
This will force pro-lifers to focus on banning abortion nationwide. Just change a few more minds and it is within reach.
Michael isn't even betting on a complete abortion ban, given that he specified surgical abortion only. Most abortions are done by pill in the US and abortions can be used up to approx 8 weeks, plenty of time to notice a missed period. This might be seen as a reasonable compromise by some very moderate "pro-choicers". Many pro-lifers might begrudgingly accept it as a temporary compromise given that it is relatively difficult to enforce a ban on abortion pills vs a ban on surgical abortion.
He is not even betting that the ban would last. Just that surgical abortions will be banned on June 1, 2034. Perhaps it will yo-yo back-and-forth and it will be re-legalized in 2036. Michael would still win the bet, in that case.
1) I think you are going to lose, but I appreciate taking the pro-life position.
2) A assume that by using 50 states you are excluding DC.