Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Boring Radical Centrism's avatar

I don't know much about Maduro specifically, but my model of dictators isn't necessarily that they're consciously evil or deliberately callous to the suffering of their people for their own personal benefit. Maybe a little bit, probably a lot more so than the nicest person you know, but not necessarily much more so than the average person.

Instead I think they practice a lot of bad epistemology and are totally delusional about what are the best policies to enact. Even as their policies bring down their nation, I think they delusionally find other stuff to blame, like America or "the Jews" or evil capitalists or communist saboteurs or what have you, varying by specific dictatorship. There are lots of examples of dictators taking actions that aren't only bad for their nation, but are bad for themselves and lead to the weakening of their regime.

That's part of why I really like the idea of futarchy, making people put money on the policies they support, so the people with the actual succesful policies make more money and have more influence in the future. Good intentions aren't enough, good epistemology is necessary too.

Expand full comment
Brian Moore's avatar

How much contemporary info do we have on Maduro or Chavez before they became leaders? Chavez a lot, I assume. Would you be able to create a list of traits/statements that, using only pre-leadership info, identify a high % they’d be bad leaders? And one that, when applied to other politicians (either from Venezuela or elsewhere) had a high % of excluding those that we know ended up not being tyrants? And how to disentangle that from local institutions/laws/restraints? It’s easy to imagine a country with more robust protections against authoritarianism that, even having elected a Chavez, would have heavily limited his bad results.

Expand full comment
11 more comments...