I Don't Find the Election Funny at All, and I Have a Great Sense of Humor

Going dark for election week

Bet On It strives to rise above transient hysterias, and Election Week is the most predictable of all of America’s transient hysterias. Pursuant to this goal, my Substack is going dark until November 11. I wash my hands of this shameful affair. See you on the other side of the impending tsunami of self-righteous emotion, tribalism, and sheer “Might Makes Right.”

Don’t I at least see the entertainment, the hilarity, in this situation? No. I don’t find the election funny at all, and I have a great sense of humor.

American democracy was already a disgrace when I wrote The Myth of the Rational Voter back in 2007. Readers often ask me if anything that’s happened in the meanwhile has changed my mind.

Answer: While my expectations were already very low, politicians and voters have worked in tandem to make my pessimism look like optimism. Much of the American left somehow managed to play Dr. Frankenstein with the corpse of socialism, while figuring out how to invent and propagate a new secular religion that is Orwellian and Kafkaesque at the same time. Much of the American right, similarly, has forgotten whatever half-hearted appreciation they ever had for free markets in favor of xenophobic scapegoating of immigrants and international trade. Perhaps the Republican shift is largely rhetorical, but it’s still grotesque to hear.

Meanwhile, both parties are committed to massive, permanent deficits, which is why I’m maxing out every Roth IRA I can get my paws on. If U.S. finances get bad enough, admittedly, the government will break its promise not to double-tax Roth accounts. But when fiscal crisis finally hits, I still give a >90% probability that the U.S. sticks to conventional tax hikes to balance the books, starting with the end of the Social Security tax phase-out. And maybe a big bout of inflation.

To be fair, democracy has exceeded my expectations on a couple of margins. Although I expected strict Covid policies to enjoy long-term bipartisan support, many red states swiftly returned to near-normalcy. Republican politicians in red states were, shockingly, probably better on Covid than the average libertarian professor. On the other side, Biden’s relatively lax border enforcement has allowed over a million extra people to join the U.S. economy. I doubt that this was Biden’s goal; his first choice is low immigration combined with mild enforcement. But his accidental liberalization is about the best we can expect.

How can I cope with this depressing worldview? By refusing to identify with the world. Every day, I focus on making my corner of existence better — tending my Epicurean garden, building my Beautiful Bubble. Yes, the underlying theme of all my books is that humanity is capable of massive improvement, but I’m not Don Quixote. The best predictor of what will be is not what could be, but what has been. The economy will improve. Technology will improve. Your life will improve… if you strive to improve it. Politics, however, will remain roughly stagnant despite your best efforts.

Sorry, especially to all my younger readers. I sincerely wish I had better news.