Dang, that sucks about your bet. I think you probably could have predicted this differently though. John Carmack, for example, was talking about how strong LLMs are and he is usually much more sober than most people with technology related predictions. Now that you've lost, what are your predictions for AI capabilities? I think that they…
Dang, that sucks about your bet. I think you probably could have predicted this differently though. John Carmack, for example, was talking about how strong LLMs are and he is usually much more sober than most people with technology related predictions.
Now that you've lost, what are your predictions for AI capabilities? I think that they're likely to automate large swaths of knowledge work, but I'm not sure when we reach the point where very little knowledge work is done by humans. I would guess that happens within 40 years, but I'm not sure why I guess that time specifically. It could happen a lot sooner, but I don't think that exponentials can continue
Dang, that sucks about your bet. I think you probably could have predicted this differently though. John Carmack, for example, was talking about how strong LLMs are and he is usually much more sober than most people with technology related predictions.
Now that you've lost, what are your predictions for AI capabilities? I think that they're likely to automate large swaths of knowledge work, but I'm not sure when we reach the point where very little knowledge work is done by humans. I would guess that happens within 40 years, but I'm not sure why I guess that time specifically. It could happen a lot sooner, but I don't think that exponentials can continue