This is true, but I think if a technology is showing consistent progress over time, the null hypothesis should be that the progress should continue, and the burden of proof should be on people who think it will stop to give reasons why this should be the case. Sometimes there are good reasons. Moore's Law held true for decades but we're …
This is true, but I think if a technology is showing consistent progress over time, the null hypothesis should be that the progress should continue, and the burden of proof should be on people who think it will stop to give reasons why this should be the case.
Sometimes there are good reasons. Moore's Law held true for decades but we're now running up against a limit imposed by the discrete/atomic nature of matter itself. But I can't think of a good reason why LLM progress should suddenly stop any time soon.
I don't think there is a burden of proof! We aren't in a courtroom, and I suggested a bit of humility in your predictions, I didn't say your wife was ugly.
There is clearly a lot of team thinking here. Like, "Oh, you have to prove that my side is wrong, or else we're right." But there aren't actually sides. I suggest that you shouldn't identify with team "AI will progress quickly."
This is true, but I think if a technology is showing consistent progress over time, the null hypothesis should be that the progress should continue, and the burden of proof should be on people who think it will stop to give reasons why this should be the case.
Sometimes there are good reasons. Moore's Law held true for decades but we're now running up against a limit imposed by the discrete/atomic nature of matter itself. But I can't think of a good reason why LLM progress should suddenly stop any time soon.
I don't think there is a burden of proof! We aren't in a courtroom, and I suggested a bit of humility in your predictions, I didn't say your wife was ugly.
There is clearly a lot of team thinking here. Like, "Oh, you have to prove that my side is wrong, or else we're right." But there aren't actually sides. I suggest that you shouldn't identify with team "AI will progress quickly."