I’m not sure of all the downstream effects. I was just thinking that if you take at face value that the policy was actually being enforced, and that it no longer is, that of itself is a gigantic change for the better in a country the size of China. Having children is easily one of the most important and most common life goals for a large proportion of people, and this change means that tens of millions of people can more fully pursue that goal without facing persecution.
Makes you wonder: "When I started blogging for MR, my twin sons were just one year old. Later this year, they’ll be applying for Ph.D. programs. ... I got Princeton University Press to publish The Case Against Education"
> Even if you love the decline of traditional values, can you honestly say that these gains outweigh the harm of falling global fertility?
Taking fertility fall as a harm is a value judgment, partially rooted in Caplan-style predictions of doom and gloom following fertility fall, but partially... just a value judgment? Not all moral theories agree that more people is better EVEN CETERIS PARIBUS, and cetera certainly aren't para here.
> That said, I roll my eyes at anyone who says we’re in a new Cold War, much less a low-level World War III.
It follows from total utilitarianism. Caplan doesn't identify as a utilitarian but I think his "common sense" approach can borrow from it the idea that it's good for people to exist.
As for your last question, do you remember living through the Cold War?
It follows from a very specific kind of calculations for utilitarianism, yes (and also from some deontological approaches, but we can discount those, I guess). Other calculations will give different results.
No, I'm 26. But "lived experience" is a bad bar generally, and also different cultural toppings shouldn't distract from geopolitical changes.
Not all people believe the decline of traditional values is intrinsically good either. That's also, obviously, a value judgement. How does that matter?
"That said, I roll my eyes at anyone who says we’re in a new Cold War, much less a low-level World War III."
Also I've bought 3 of his books but am eagerly awaiting "Poverty Who Is to Blame". I've known "poor" US citizens and most of it seems self inflicted, but that could be just the people that I know, and I've known some who just had not found good jobs yet, so I'd like to see the broad statistics on it.
“Did you know that biologists have deliberately tried to breed the biggest mice on earth? It only took 35 generations to increase average weight by 7 standard deviations, from 25g to 43 g.”
Wowjustwow. In the current year, I think this research would fall afoul of strictures against "scientifc racism."
“…if I were writing a history of world politics over the last thirty years, I would struggle to name any big good political development.”
China ending its One Child Policy has got to be one of the best political developments in the last few decades.
Also, a little under 100 million Eastern Europeans being allowed to live and work freely on that continent's Western area
Has it had much effect?
I’m not sure of all the downstream effects. I was just thinking that if you take at face value that the policy was actually being enforced, and that it no longer is, that of itself is a gigantic change for the better in a country the size of China. Having children is easily one of the most important and most common life goals for a large proportion of people, and this change means that tens of millions of people can more fully pursue that goal without facing persecution.
It has been a fun intellectual ride with you, Bryan.
Thank you, Bryan Caplan, for making your intellectual gems so accessible to us screen-readers.
DOUBLE thank-you.
Bryan, yesterday’s event was great! Thanks for sharing more about your journey. We’ll see you back in Europe soon, I hope 😃
Makes you wonder: "When I started blogging for MR, my twin sons were just one year old. Later this year, they’ll be applying for Ph.D. programs. ... I got Princeton University Press to publish The Case Against Education"
Bryan has also said many times that being a college professor is a dream job, so the necessary credential would obviously be worth it.
Congrats!
Was it worth? Or was it a complete waste of time?
> Even if you love the decline of traditional values, can you honestly say that these gains outweigh the harm of falling global fertility?
Taking fertility fall as a harm is a value judgment, partially rooted in Caplan-style predictions of doom and gloom following fertility fall, but partially... just a value judgment? Not all moral theories agree that more people is better EVEN CETERIS PARIBUS, and cetera certainly aren't para here.
> That said, I roll my eyes at anyone who says we’re in a new Cold War, much less a low-level World War III.
Why?
I fear we're slouching into World War III, via a Cold War. Let it be AFTER I'm gone!
It follows from total utilitarianism. Caplan doesn't identify as a utilitarian but I think his "common sense" approach can borrow from it the idea that it's good for people to exist.
As for your last question, do you remember living through the Cold War?
It follows from a very specific kind of calculations for utilitarianism, yes (and also from some deontological approaches, but we can discount those, I guess). Other calculations will give different results.
No, I'm 26. But "lived experience" is a bad bar generally, and also different cultural toppings shouldn't distract from geopolitical changes.
Not all people believe the decline of traditional values is intrinsically good either. That's also, obviously, a value judgement. How does that matter?
It matters because "honestly" implies holding an anti-natalist position is dishonest, rather than simply immoral.
No it doesn't. It's just a figure of speech. It's like when people say can you *really* say that?
This is even weirder: can people really not hold moral judgments different to the author?
I appreciated you then and I still do today
I love to read more of Bryan's views on this:
"That said, I roll my eyes at anyone who says we’re in a new Cold War, much less a low-level World War III."
Also I've bought 3 of his books but am eagerly awaiting "Poverty Who Is to Blame". I've known "poor" US citizens and most of it seems self inflicted, but that could be just the people that I know, and I've known some who just had not found good jobs yet, so I'd like to see the broad statistics on it.
Thank you so much for blogging! 🩵
“Did you know that biologists have deliberately tried to breed the biggest mice on earth? It only took 35 generations to increase average weight by 7 standard deviations, from 25g to 43 g.”
Wowjustwow. In the current year, I think this research would fall afoul of strictures against "scientifc racism."
This episode of Bet On It seems more to describe the character Bill Blazejowski played by Michael Keaton in the movie,"Night Shift"
Looks like we ALMOST share a birthday! I started blogging on 27th July 2004!
This is how I started! https://www.noenthuda.com/2004/07/27/gopi-gupta-vegetarian/
"I’ve managed to keep all but one of my closest friends from 2004"
I am very curious who this lost friend is and what happened.
I assume one party rejected the other. I, too, am curious which/whom, and why (assuming it's not too personal - to anyone).
If I lost one friend ... well, never mind!