In January, U.S. inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.5%. Before the Ukraine war, my guess was that inflation from 2022-2024 would peak at 8.6%. Now I expect that peak to be around 10%. My suspicion is that the Fed will delay tightening until after the midterm elections, then become sharply contractionary in December or January, desperately hoping that the
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Inflationary Austerity
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In January, U.S. inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.5%. Before the Ukraine war, my guess was that inflation from 2022-2024 would peak at 8.6%. Now I expect that peak to be around 10%. My suspicion is that the Fed will delay tightening until after the midterm elections, then become sharply contractionary in December or January, desperately hoping that the