It worked out extremely well for the USofA. - Though Dubai will (mostly) disappear in the sand when the oil is gone. Bahrain (first oil pump in the region, mostly depleted today) is already back to backwater (only place in the region where you can buy lots of booze in a shop) . Saudia's post-petrol-age future: similar; nowadays large sou…
It worked out extremely well for the USofA. - Though Dubai will (mostly) disappear in the sand when the oil is gone. Bahrain (first oil pump in the region, mostly depleted today) is already back to backwater (only place in the region where you can buy lots of booze in a shop) . Saudia's post-petrol-age future: similar; nowadays large source of investments into the UAE. Qatar: Probably a tiny bit over UAE in share of foreigners (ca. 90%), there are more Nepalesi than Qatari in Qatar! "As of 2024, the largest expatriate community is Indian, constituting 21.80% of the population, approximately 700,000 people. Bangladesh and Nepal contribute significantly, each making up 12.50%, equivalent to 400,000 individuals.") and as delusional as Saudia: "Qatar is actively pursuing its Qatarization initiative, aiming to increase the employment of Qatari citizens in both public and private sectors. The target is to achieve 50% representation of Qatari citizens in the core sectors."
And how did "open borders" affect those places before they found ways to export oil and (liquified) gas? As unattractive as legally open Spitzbergen/Svalbard is today.
All that said, I do agree with all of Caplan`s statements. Fun fact: thousands of nurses from Philippines work in Saudia (under less than ideal conditions) for a few hundred $ a months. All would pack this evening to swap their jobs there to work in US/UK/Germany for US/UK/German pay.
Oil production accounts for less than 1% of Dubai's current GDP. They managed to take the money they made before, when it was 50%, and they actually quite successfully diversified their economy.
The UAE as a whole only earns 17% of its revenue from oil and gas*. For a native population of about 10% with a sizable sovereign fund, if oil were to disappear, the only people who would be significantly affected in the long run would be blue collar workers in certain sectors.
And Bahrain is not "back to backwater". They're still experiencing solid economic growth
It worked out extremely well for the USofA. - Though Dubai will (mostly) disappear in the sand when the oil is gone. Bahrain (first oil pump in the region, mostly depleted today) is already back to backwater (only place in the region where you can buy lots of booze in a shop) . Saudia's post-petrol-age future: similar; nowadays large source of investments into the UAE. Qatar: Probably a tiny bit over UAE in share of foreigners (ca. 90%), there are more Nepalesi than Qatari in Qatar! "As of 2024, the largest expatriate community is Indian, constituting 21.80% of the population, approximately 700,000 people. Bangladesh and Nepal contribute significantly, each making up 12.50%, equivalent to 400,000 individuals.") and as delusional as Saudia: "Qatar is actively pursuing its Qatarization initiative, aiming to increase the employment of Qatari citizens in both public and private sectors. The target is to achieve 50% representation of Qatari citizens in the core sectors."
And how did "open borders" affect those places before they found ways to export oil and (liquified) gas? As unattractive as legally open Spitzbergen/Svalbard is today.
All that said, I do agree with all of Caplan`s statements. Fun fact: thousands of nurses from Philippines work in Saudia (under less than ideal conditions) for a few hundred $ a months. All would pack this evening to swap their jobs there to work in US/UK/Germany for US/UK/German pay.
Oil production accounts for less than 1% of Dubai's current GDP. They managed to take the money they made before, when it was 50%, and they actually quite successfully diversified their economy.
The UAE as a whole only earns 17% of its revenue from oil and gas*. For a native population of about 10% with a sizable sovereign fund, if oil were to disappear, the only people who would be significantly affected in the long run would be blue collar workers in certain sectors.
And Bahrain is not "back to backwater". They're still experiencing solid economic growth
* https://www.statista.com/statistics/1143052/uae-distribution-of-real-gdp-by-sector/#:~:text=In%202020%2C%20the%20extractive%20industries,closely%20at%20approximately%2013.6%20perce
I worked 5 years in Saudia and visited Bahrain and its booze shop. I stand by "backwater". Also: bordello.