I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024.
I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes.
For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes.
For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes an hence a margin of victory of 2 votes.
The above prediction will be based on the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris).
I am stating my election forecast in writing here on 30 October 2024, ahead of the election itself on 05 November 2024.
I forecast that Trump wins the election, with 296 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 54 votes.
For my margin of error, I forecast that the upper limits as a Trump victory with no more than 317 electoral votes and hence a margin of victory of 96 votes.
For my margin of error, I forecast the lower limits as a Harris victory with 270 electoral votes an hence a margin of victory of 2 votes.
The above prediction will be based on the consensus of reporting from the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, and BBC, independently of any claims from Trump (or Harris).