Honest question. How does this square with your idea that much of high school education is a waste of time? If someone knows ate age 14 that they want to fix cars, why don’t they just starting fixing cars and get started on their 401(k) a few years earlier?
And yet, the data on the success sequence is very strong. This is a fascinating paradox.
I suspect the answer to the paradox is that there is so much pressure to finish high school before working, coupled with how easy graduating is, that the vast majority who drop out are doing so because they have serious problems that prevent them from doing well. The few kids who want to drop out to start working just get part time jobs and finish, while those who drop out tend to do so for criminal, drug or other reasons. It is the same reason so many health related products have spotty track records that turn into “no effect”: very health conscious people are the ones taking the useless supplements, and those people are doing lots of things for their health so they tend to be healthy, despite the supplements doing nothing. School provides little value but the traits that make you successful tend to be the traits that say “stay in school anyway”.
I think a high school education is required because society requires a high school education. It's not the content that's valuable; it's the signal.
I think smart kids who are interested in learning and determined can leave school early and be successful. Kids who are not smart can't do this because without the **signal **, they will not be successful.
FWIW I left school at 16 and I made it from bottom quintile to top quintile. I could have left at 14 with the same result if it had been allowed.
But I presume you still got a diploma or ged? Per your main point as long as we require a minimum certification it still is good advice for kids to get that paper. Probably there should be easier ways to test out (and get the same paper) for qualified students
I totally agree that — with the cultural requirements as they are now — kids should graduate high school. I also agree that kids should be allowed to test out early.
I went to school in the UK where it was normal to leave school at 16. we didn't/don't have a graduation certificate like the USA. You do a bunch of subjects and you pass them or you don't and leave anyway whether you passed or not. I got 9 O-Levels.
Is the data strong? Is it a correlation or is there evidence for causality? Genuine question as I am not familiar with it. Do they do well because they don't have kids out of wedlock or is it the other way around?
Personally I'm not a fan of pledges at all. Leave that to the parents.
Wilcox’s research tries to control for various factors but obviously the nature of social science research like this is you can’t control for everything. If people were identical, they wouldn’t make different choices.
To me it seems the case is much stronger that marriage before kids is causal of success (particularly if we measure success by our children’s success) than HS graduation is.
A certain type of successful individual just has to get out of formal school at that age and break out into the world, later easily backfilling a GED, as some in these comments attest. I can attest that my oldest friend is this way.
But marriage promotes family stability in and of itself. Stability is normally very good for kids unless one parent is very, very bad. Particularly when a mother who picked a bad father for her first child is likely to bring additional bad men into her child’s life, it’s usually better in that case if the first guy just sticks around.
You know, that’s a good question. Many thinkers I hold in high regard (including Bryan) trumpet the success sequence so I assumed it was a strong correlation. But I don’t have the day in front of me.
Don't you foreclose a lot of options though? Suppose it turns out you were both good at fixing cars and fixing skeletal injuries. One of these things you will never find out at 14. You can always fix cars if you really wanted after medical school but you cannot fix skeletal injuries without a high school degree followed by a college degree followed by medical school.
If a child has shown by eighth grade they are not academically inclined, how often do they turn things around in high school? Occasionally, but I bet it’s unusual. For every amazing turnaround story we get, we probably waste four years in the lives of a hundred young people who have no interest in history or art or foreign languages. If they express an interest in a skill that will make them money, their lives will be far better if they pursue that skill.
A starting elevator repair technician makes over a hundred grand a year in the Washington, DC area. People should be able to use their early teenage years to complete an apprenticeship so they can earn big money starting at age 16 or so. Why hold them back and cost them hundreds of thousands on the moonshot that they’ll suddenly develop academic interest?
Kids that age, and even younger actually, who want to play tennis competitively, for example, switch to home schooling. The Williams sisters were home schooled in the early years and attended public high school. It didn't get in the way of Serena winning her first major at 17. You could fit in elevator repair if you wanted to!
We know a bit more now about brain development in adolescents, and requiring high school is not an unreasonable imposition.
Art and music fill a child's life in the lower grades. The lesson there is to pursue what you think is fun. How about instead of "I pledge allegiance to the flag . . ." We have them recite this bit of wisdom from Thomas Sowell...
"You make money by doing what other people want, not what you want.”
But important to know that correlation doesn’t equal causation. If everyone did this, they would on average be much better off, and the country would be a better place, but… it’s probably not the case that fully 97% wouldn’t be poor upon reaching adulthood.
And that noted, I love the idea, and it is great advice.
Wait, a well known Professor of Economics questioned the value of high school. I think he even wrote a book about it called "The Case Against Education" ;)
This really is such an interesting and powerful line of research. I think a lot of left leaning academics and policy makers are bending over backwards (Raj Chetty) to show why the success sequence isn't convincing, or why racism still overpowers the success sequence, but the simple formula closes like 80% of achievement gaps among races. That's without any massive government policies, tax dollars, DEI, racial reckoning, and god only knows what else. It's just following basic societal norms. Why don't we start there?
I am very skeptical. This sounds like correlation, not causation.
What does anybody learn in the last couple of years of High School[Nothing, Bryan taught me.]? Bored, bored, bored for the kids, and zero or worse for the teachers.
Not have kids before marriage? That's a female thing. Her abatement technology is more worthwhile to her, than a man's is to him. But that's sexist, or blaming the victim, or whatever. Can be propagated that way.
Work full time? Get rid of minimum wage laws and get rid of two years of high school. 'Twould happen automatically then.
The point is that these normative suggestions are derived from what was once normal, but nowadays no individual can, or as a male, has an incentive to do, all of these things.
I’m surprised 47 states still officially require the Pledge of Allegiance, and I wonder when those laws were enacted. West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette was decided in 1943…
Just a quip but in those other three states the pledge I'm guessing was just replaced with something else as opposed to not done. For example in Hawaii in public school they say a prayer to the God King Kamehameha before class instead; not even joking. It's amazing how all those anti-religion in school types give a free pass to Hawaii just because it's not Christianity which is the real "enemy".
I'd qualify that though with "find and keep a job" which is actually a pretty substantial barrier for many people. A significant reason people don't work isn't laziness, it's a labor market that refuses to adapt to their needs. Not out efficiency either but simply spite often.
I'm just imagining the savage, prison-style beatings the Martin Princes of the world are going to receive during recess after enthusiastically reciting this pledge.
Honest question. How does this square with your idea that much of high school education is a waste of time? If someone knows ate age 14 that they want to fix cars, why don’t they just starting fixing cars and get started on their 401(k) a few years earlier?
And yet, the data on the success sequence is very strong. This is a fascinating paradox.
I suspect the answer to the paradox is that there is so much pressure to finish high school before working, coupled with how easy graduating is, that the vast majority who drop out are doing so because they have serious problems that prevent them from doing well. The few kids who want to drop out to start working just get part time jobs and finish, while those who drop out tend to do so for criminal, drug or other reasons. It is the same reason so many health related products have spotty track records that turn into “no effect”: very health conscious people are the ones taking the useless supplements, and those people are doing lots of things for their health so they tend to be healthy, despite the supplements doing nothing. School provides little value but the traits that make you successful tend to be the traits that say “stay in school anyway”.
Good point. Conscientious people are conscientious about everything.
I think a high school education is required because society requires a high school education. It's not the content that's valuable; it's the signal.
I think smart kids who are interested in learning and determined can leave school early and be successful. Kids who are not smart can't do this because without the **signal **, they will not be successful.
FWIW I left school at 16 and I made it from bottom quintile to top quintile. I could have left at 14 with the same result if it had been allowed.
But I presume you still got a diploma or ged? Per your main point as long as we require a minimum certification it still is good advice for kids to get that paper. Probably there should be easier ways to test out (and get the same paper) for qualified students
I totally agree that — with the cultural requirements as they are now — kids should graduate high school. I also agree that kids should be allowed to test out early.
I went to school in the UK where it was normal to leave school at 16. we didn't/don't have a graduation certificate like the USA. You do a bunch of subjects and you pass them or you don't and leave anyway whether you passed or not. I got 9 O-Levels.
Is the data strong? Is it a correlation or is there evidence for causality? Genuine question as I am not familiar with it. Do they do well because they don't have kids out of wedlock or is it the other way around?
Personally I'm not a fan of pledges at all. Leave that to the parents.
Wilcox’s research tries to control for various factors but obviously the nature of social science research like this is you can’t control for everything. If people were identical, they wouldn’t make different choices.
To me it seems the case is much stronger that marriage before kids is causal of success (particularly if we measure success by our children’s success) than HS graduation is.
A certain type of successful individual just has to get out of formal school at that age and break out into the world, later easily backfilling a GED, as some in these comments attest. I can attest that my oldest friend is this way.
But marriage promotes family stability in and of itself. Stability is normally very good for kids unless one parent is very, very bad. Particularly when a mother who picked a bad father for her first child is likely to bring additional bad men into her child’s life, it’s usually better in that case if the first guy just sticks around.
You know, that’s a good question. Many thinkers I hold in high regard (including Bryan) trumpet the success sequence so I assumed it was a strong correlation. But I don’t have the day in front of me.
Don't you foreclose a lot of options though? Suppose it turns out you were both good at fixing cars and fixing skeletal injuries. One of these things you will never find out at 14. You can always fix cars if you really wanted after medical school but you cannot fix skeletal injuries without a high school degree followed by a college degree followed by medical school.
If a child has shown by eighth grade they are not academically inclined, how often do they turn things around in high school? Occasionally, but I bet it’s unusual. For every amazing turnaround story we get, we probably waste four years in the lives of a hundred young people who have no interest in history or art or foreign languages. If they express an interest in a skill that will make them money, their lives will be far better if they pursue that skill.
A starting elevator repair technician makes over a hundred grand a year in the Washington, DC area. People should be able to use their early teenage years to complete an apprenticeship so they can earn big money starting at age 16 or so. Why hold them back and cost them hundreds of thousands on the moonshot that they’ll suddenly develop academic interest?
Kids that age, and even younger actually, who want to play tennis competitively, for example, switch to home schooling. The Williams sisters were home schooled in the early years and attended public high school. It didn't get in the way of Serena winning her first major at 17. You could fit in elevator repair if you wanted to!
We know a bit more now about brain development in adolescents, and requiring high school is not an unreasonable imposition.
At, not ate.
Art and music fill a child's life in the lower grades. The lesson there is to pursue what you think is fun. How about instead of "I pledge allegiance to the flag . . ." We have them recite this bit of wisdom from Thomas Sowell...
"You make money by doing what other people want, not what you want.”
Should've saved this one for next monday
I love the idea. It’s great advice.
But important to know that correlation doesn’t equal causation. If everyone did this, they would on average be much better off, and the country would be a better place, but… it’s probably not the case that fully 97% wouldn’t be poor upon reaching adulthood.
And that noted, I love the idea, and it is great advice.
Why does marrying before having kids make you less likely to be poor? Why not simply "Do not have kids you cannot afford"?
Wait, a well known Professor of Economics questioned the value of high school. I think he even wrote a book about it called "The Case Against Education" ;)
This really is such an interesting and powerful line of research. I think a lot of left leaning academics and policy makers are bending over backwards (Raj Chetty) to show why the success sequence isn't convincing, or why racism still overpowers the success sequence, but the simple formula closes like 80% of achievement gaps among races. That's without any massive government policies, tax dollars, DEI, racial reckoning, and god only knows what else. It's just following basic societal norms. Why don't we start there?
I am very skeptical. This sounds like correlation, not causation.
What does anybody learn in the last couple of years of High School[Nothing, Bryan taught me.]? Bored, bored, bored for the kids, and zero or worse for the teachers.
Not have kids before marriage? That's a female thing. Her abatement technology is more worthwhile to her, than a man's is to him. But that's sexist, or blaming the victim, or whatever. Can be propagated that way.
Work full time? Get rid of minimum wage laws and get rid of two years of high school. 'Twould happen automatically then.
The point is that these normative suggestions are derived from what was once normal, but nowadays no individual can, or as a male, has an incentive to do, all of these things.
I think this is like praying to the sun gods.
If everyone did it, then it would stop being such a reliable guarantor of success.
Bryan
Well . . .
This is one ancient father’s admonition to his son . . .
I read and reread to my daughter. Seems beneficial.
“When wisdom enters your heart
And knowledge becomes pleasant to your soul,
Thinking ability will keep watch over you,
And discernment will safeguard you,
To save you from the bad course,
From the man speaking perverse things,
From those leaving the upright paths
To walk in the ways of darkness,
From those who rejoice in wrongdoing,
Who find joy in the perverseness of evil,
Those whose paths are crooked
And whose entire course is devious.”
Thanks
Clay
It’s been said before, but the multitudes who are successful need to ‘preach what they practice.’
I’m surprised 47 states still officially require the Pledge of Allegiance, and I wonder when those laws were enacted. West Virginia State Board of Education v. Barnette was decided in 1943…
It's an appealing idea. Trouble is - in order to bring about teaching children sound values in our schools - you would need to sack and replace 90% of our current teachers. https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/teach-your-children-well
Just a quip but in those other three states the pledge I'm guessing was just replaced with something else as opposed to not done. For example in Hawaii in public school they say a prayer to the God King Kamehameha before class instead; not even joking. It's amazing how all those anti-religion in school types give a free pass to Hawaii just because it's not Christianity which is the real "enemy".
Someone told me that 90%+ of what makes the success sequence work is, work full time.
I'd qualify that though with "find and keep a job" which is actually a pretty substantial barrier for many people. A significant reason people don't work isn't laziness, it's a labor market that refuses to adapt to their needs. Not out efficiency either but simply spite often.
I'm just imagining the savage, prison-style beatings the Martin Princes of the world are going to receive during recess after enthusiastically reciting this pledge.