In Joe Colucci’s thoughtful response to my “Nudge and Abortion,” he writes:
[D]ata saying that women are generally happy with their children, even after unplanned pregnancies, are unlikely to be representative of the population we’re. More relevant evidence comes from the recent study of women who were just barely denied abortions (vs. women who just barely got them) presents a far less rosy picture of life outcomes and mothers’ relationships with their children.
On my reading, though, the research Colucci cites strikingly confirms my claim that women who seek abortions are unrealistically negative about the effects of completing their pregnancies. The study looked at women who were turned away for abortions, largely because their pregnancies were too far along. Key passage:
When [researcher Diana Greene Foster] looked at more objective measures of mental health over time — rates of depression and anxiety — she also found no correlation between having an abortion and increased symptoms. In a working paper based on her study, Foster notes that “women’s depression and anxiety symptoms either remained steady or decreased over the two-year period after receiving an abortion,” and that in fact, “initial and subsequent levels of depressive symptoms were similar” between those who received an abortion and those who were turned away. Turnaways did, however, suffer from higher levels of anxiety, but six months out, there were no appreciable differences between the two groups.
In other words, even though women who seek an abortion feel like a child will ruin their lives, that’s not how they end up feeling if they complete their pregnancies. At all. The average woman who says, “A baby would ruin my life!” eventually sings a totally different tune. A shocking result!
The negative effects of not getting an abortion, in contrast, are obvious: The usual health effects of pregnancy, and the usual financial effects of having a baby outside of a stable family:
Where the turnaways had more significant negative outcomes was in their physical health and economic stability. Because new mothers are eligible for government programs, Foster thought that they might have better health over time. But women in the turnaway group suffered more ill effects, including higher rates of hypertension and chronic pelvic pain (though Foster cannot say whether turnaways face greater risk from pregnancy than an average woman). Even “later abortions are significantly safer than childbirth,” she says, “and we see that through lower complications and low incidence of chronic conditions.”…
Economically, the results are even more striking. Adjusting for any previous differences between the two groups, women denied abortion were three times as likely to end up below the federal poverty line two years later. Having a child is expensive, and many mothers have trouble holding down a job while caring for an infant. Had the turnaways not had access to public assistance for women with newborns, Foster says, they would have experienced greater hardship.
If the women who gave birth were sicker and poorer, why weren’t they more depressed or anxious? Simple: Either sickness and poverty have little effect on depression and anxiety, or having a child actually reduces depression and anxiety holding sickness and finances constant. Take your pick.
The post appeared first on Econlib.
Yes, part of how I gloss the Turnaway Study is that both the women who achieved the abortions they sought and the ones who were denied both wind up fairly happy with the outcome they got and have few regrets. The moms whose children survive take a big economic hit, but usually aren't in a poverty trap—they have a (very!) hard few years and gradually achieve more stability.
That is a good example of how people frame equivalencies only in one way. That is, if someone says X has the same outcome as Y, and the listener thinks Y is bad, they will decide X must be bad, but it is equally true that maybe Y isn't as bad as they initially thought, being only so bad as X which the listener had no particular problem with before.
My favorite example of that is a study someone threw up once that claimed "driving while talking on a cell phone is as dangerous as driving while drunk." My initial reaction was "damn... driving drunk must not be that bad, because I have ridden with people talking on cell phones, and done so myself, many times with no problems at all." Others reacted in horror, but frankly given how much people talked on their phones while driving in the days before hands free, the reaction was kind of silly.