Sorry David. It's not a nice piece because Bryan doesn't know the details of my home country's history since at least 1928. I cannot explain here what happened since then but the most relevant period to understand what may happen to Milei is 1989-99, that is, the presidency of Carlos Menem (from July 9, 1989 to December 10, 1999). Menem …
Sorry David. It's not a nice piece because Bryan doesn't know the details of my home country's history since at least 1928. I cannot explain here what happened since then but the most relevant period to understand what may happen to Milei is 1989-99, that is, the presidency of Carlos Menem (from July 9, 1989 to December 10, 1999). Menem was a Peronist from a very small, poor province but ready to be the party's candidate in the 1989 election (I know all the details because President Alfonsín asked the U.S. President to prevent Menem to become president with a huge loan from the IMF and WB in July 1988 and the loan was denied). Menem had an absolute majority in Congress. You should divide his presidency into two economic periods: until March 1, 1991, and thereafter. In the first period, he acted like an old Peronist but the collapse of the economy in early 1991 led him to appoint my old friend Domingo Cavallo as Minister to implement the Convertibility Plan which included also a reduction in public expenditure and some liberalization of the economy (as well as some debt relief under the Bradley plan). The Plan was a success but over time it was abandoned by Menem to extend his presidency to 12 years (he was president for 10 years thanks to the constitutional reform of 1994 which allowed two successive periods of 4 years rather than one six-year period but he was able to complete a 6-year period and one 4-year period). By the time Menem left office in late 1999, the Convertibility Plan was not effective and the dismissal of convertibility was widely expected but it outlived for another two years, leading to another terrible crisis. The night Cavallo resigned in August 1996, I was having dinner with a friend who had been offered the position, but he rejected. The main point of our conversation was the impossibility of doing anything to meet Menem's desire to remain until December 2003 other than to ruin the economy (btw, in 2003, Menem won the first-round election but he opted out of the second-round because he knew his Party was going to support Nestor Kirchner).
So what can Milei negotiate with the current Congress in the next two years? And with the current Judiciary (yes, lawfare has dominated Argentina's complex judiciary for a long time)? It has been a huge surprise for Milei to become president, so let us hope he can get at least 50% of what he has already announced (it'd be much more than anything Menem did after March 1991).
Sorry, David. I didn't say Bryan made mistakes. I'm saying he is missing details of relevant past experiences --the ones that Gordon Tullock used to pay attention when trying to understand what happened and what may happen. Those details are related to how politicians had attempted to get and keep power, and indeed their strategies are expected to take into account the field in which they are playing. Since I cannot tell you all the experiences of the past 100 years, I selected the one that could be most relevant today.
In addition, since I have been very familiar with Chile history over the past 51 years, I can tell you that what happened during Pinochet is irrelevant to what may happen to Milei (btw, a few days ago the Pinochet's Minister responsible for designing and implementing the fiscal reform of 1975 that facilitated all the other reforms passed away, and it was an opportunity to share ideas about that reform with a couple of old friends and how different that experience was from what is going on in Argentina).
Sorry David. It's not a nice piece because Bryan doesn't know the details of my home country's history since at least 1928. I cannot explain here what happened since then but the most relevant period to understand what may happen to Milei is 1989-99, that is, the presidency of Carlos Menem (from July 9, 1989 to December 10, 1999). Menem was a Peronist from a very small, poor province but ready to be the party's candidate in the 1989 election (I know all the details because President Alfonsín asked the U.S. President to prevent Menem to become president with a huge loan from the IMF and WB in July 1988 and the loan was denied). Menem had an absolute majority in Congress. You should divide his presidency into two economic periods: until March 1, 1991, and thereafter. In the first period, he acted like an old Peronist but the collapse of the economy in early 1991 led him to appoint my old friend Domingo Cavallo as Minister to implement the Convertibility Plan which included also a reduction in public expenditure and some liberalization of the economy (as well as some debt relief under the Bradley plan). The Plan was a success but over time it was abandoned by Menem to extend his presidency to 12 years (he was president for 10 years thanks to the constitutional reform of 1994 which allowed two successive periods of 4 years rather than one six-year period but he was able to complete a 6-year period and one 4-year period). By the time Menem left office in late 1999, the Convertibility Plan was not effective and the dismissal of convertibility was widely expected but it outlived for another two years, leading to another terrible crisis. The night Cavallo resigned in August 1996, I was having dinner with a friend who had been offered the position, but he rejected. The main point of our conversation was the impossibility of doing anything to meet Menem's desire to remain until December 2003 other than to ruin the economy (btw, in 2003, Menem won the first-round election but he opted out of the second-round because he knew his Party was going to support Nestor Kirchner).
So what can Milei negotiate with the current Congress in the next two years? And with the current Judiciary (yes, lawfare has dominated Argentina's complex judiciary for a long time)? It has been a huge surprise for Milei to become president, so let us hope he can get at least 50% of what he has already announced (it'd be much more than anything Menem did after March 1991).
It's hard to tell from your comment above what part Bryan got wrong. Can you point me to an actual mistake he made?
Sorry, David. I didn't say Bryan made mistakes. I'm saying he is missing details of relevant past experiences --the ones that Gordon Tullock used to pay attention when trying to understand what happened and what may happen. Those details are related to how politicians had attempted to get and keep power, and indeed their strategies are expected to take into account the field in which they are playing. Since I cannot tell you all the experiences of the past 100 years, I selected the one that could be most relevant today.
In addition, since I have been very familiar with Chile history over the past 51 years, I can tell you that what happened during Pinochet is irrelevant to what may happen to Milei (btw, a few days ago the Pinochet's Minister responsible for designing and implementing the fiscal reform of 1975 that facilitated all the other reforms passed away, and it was an opportunity to share ideas about that reform with a couple of old friends and how different that experience was from what is going on in Argentina).