Seems to ignore the increase in MD adjacent roles, like PAs and Nurse Practitioners which is an increase in supply of MD-like services. They can prescribe medicine, etc. Apologies in advance if this is covered elsewhere.
I'm not sure they matter. The gas station clerk will sell me NyQuil and bandaids too, do we count them? NPs are not MD adjacent regardless their lobbying.
(Not the same Peter lol, seems I have a evil twin :)
Ha (to evil twin comment) - I don’t think that is a good analogy. PAs and MDs do a lot of services that MDs used to do (and in many cases still do) so they are a direct substitute today and even more so if you are comparing back in time.
Another thing needed for analysis: MDs per senior doesn't give us the whole picture. You have to measure the right specialties. A new MD who becomes a pediatrician should not make us feel like there will be more docs to treat 75 year olds. I would like to see the data broken out by "specialties that treat seniors".
I think in order to give a good picture of reality here, you need to take into account the major changes in "independent practice" and expansion of non-MD providers over the years since 2013.
"Number of postsecondary institutions conferring doctor's degrees in dentistry, medicine, and law, and number of such degrees conferred, by sex of student: "
Very interesting. Whereas dentistry and law encompass multiple degrees, medicine expressly does not. In a state like Ohio, with a big college of osteopathic medicine (Ohio University) and one another big one right over the border (LECOM), that could really understate the number of physicians.
yep, exactly what I was thinking (I am in Ohio myself).
Now certainly, it wouldn't be the first time people just lumped MD and DO together, but the fact they explicitly mentioned "MD" makes me think they didn't do so here.
A supply side measure would also ideally be in MD-hours. Of course, that data will be harder to get, but based on a 2023 posting:
"Yet researchers have noted a trend in recent years that physicians in the United States are actually working fewer hours and seeing fewer patients overall. The trend may have some benefits for physicians but could have serious implications for the physician workforce in the future—and the ability of patients to get access to a physician for care."
So even if number of MDs per person was to rise, might not mean MD-hours per person also rose.
Also, the higher price will undoubtedly induce substitutes as some other comments noted.
This is an incomplete analysis. Many of the issues have been dealt with by other commenters. However, here are a few more.
Include female MDs, which in my university make up ~50% of new MDs
Include all of those licenses to practice medicine, which primarily means include DOs.
Include info on specialties. The primary need of seniors is internists and family physicians. I would guess many new MDs go into fields that support their chosen life style, such as ER, dermatology, etc. These fields don't provide primary care for seniors.
Use some modifier to include physician assistants and nurse practitioners. They can practice independently in many jurisdictions.
Include info on geographic locations. Rural areas are particularly underserved in that regard, or so I've read.
I'm sure there are other factors that should be considered.
The AMA has been warning for decades that there is/will be a physician shortage. However, the creation of new medical schools has not been sufficient to meet the shortfalls.
Why is it important to plot only new M.D.s? And how is "new" defined?
Seems to ignore the increase in MD adjacent roles, like PAs and Nurse Practitioners which is an increase in supply of MD-like services. They can prescribe medicine, etc. Apologies in advance if this is covered elsewhere.
I'm not sure they matter. The gas station clerk will sell me NyQuil and bandaids too, do we count them? NPs are not MD adjacent regardless their lobbying.
(Not the same Peter lol, seems I have a evil twin :)
Ha (to evil twin comment) - I don’t think that is a good analogy. PAs and MDs do a lot of services that MDs used to do (and in many cases still do) so they are a direct substitute today and even more so if you are comparing back in time.
Brian. Could you comment on this?
Whoops, we had the same idea!
Another thing needed for analysis: MDs per senior doesn't give us the whole picture. You have to measure the right specialties. A new MD who becomes a pediatrician should not make us feel like there will be more docs to treat 75 year olds. I would like to see the data broken out by "specialties that treat seniors".
I think in order to give a good picture of reality here, you need to take into account the major changes in "independent practice" and expansion of non-MD providers over the years since 2013.
Right. Does this even count DOs?
I assumed that it did, because it should, but looking at the cited data: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d22/tables/dt22_324.40.asp?current=yes I think maybe it does not. The column header says:
"Number of postsecondary institutions conferring doctor's degrees in dentistry, medicine, and law, and number of such degrees conferred, by sex of student: "
"Medicine (M.D.)"
Very interesting. Whereas dentistry and law encompass multiple degrees, medicine expressly does not. In a state like Ohio, with a big college of osteopathic medicine (Ohio University) and one another big one right over the border (LECOM), that could really understate the number of physicians.
yep, exactly what I was thinking (I am in Ohio myself).
Now certainly, it wouldn't be the first time people just lumped MD and DO together, but the fact they explicitly mentioned "MD" makes me think they didn't do so here.
A supply side measure would also ideally be in MD-hours. Of course, that data will be harder to get, but based on a 2023 posting:
"Yet researchers have noted a trend in recent years that physicians in the United States are actually working fewer hours and seeing fewer patients overall. The trend may have some benefits for physicians but could have serious implications for the physician workforce in the future—and the ability of patients to get access to a physician for care."
So even if number of MDs per person was to rise, might not mean MD-hours per person also rose.
Also, the higher price will undoubtedly induce substitutes as some other comments noted.
Anyway, thanks for the update.
Should midwives be included? In some parts of Europe they deliver about 70% of the children, but only about 10% in the U.S?
I should have suggested that midwives would have a significant impact on the price of doctors.
This is an incomplete analysis. Many of the issues have been dealt with by other commenters. However, here are a few more.
Include female MDs, which in my university make up ~50% of new MDs
Include all of those licenses to practice medicine, which primarily means include DOs.
Include info on specialties. The primary need of seniors is internists and family physicians. I would guess many new MDs go into fields that support their chosen life style, such as ER, dermatology, etc. These fields don't provide primary care for seniors.
Use some modifier to include physician assistants and nurse practitioners. They can practice independently in many jurisdictions.
Include info on geographic locations. Rural areas are particularly underserved in that regard, or so I've read.
I'm sure there are other factors that should be considered.
The AMA has been warning for decades that there is/will be a physician shortage. However, the creation of new medical schools has not been sufficient to meet the shortfalls.